Manchester City’s Tactical Evolution under Pep Guardiola and Predictions for the 2025/26 Season

There have not been many managers in football history who have continually reinvented their tactics while staying at the top. Pep Guardiola and his all-conquering Manchester City team have been a masterclass in evolution year after year, but last season (2024/25) was far from their best.

Inconsistent form, defensive lapses, and missed opportunities saw them fall short, and the pressure is now on to prove their dominance isn’t slipping.

As Manchester City have made a slow start to the 2025/26 season, it’s worth taking a look at how Guardiola’s tactics have adapted over time and what might be in store as they look to bounce back against their fierce rivals, with Liverpool entering the season as the bookmakers’ favourites.

When Guardiola first took charge in 2016, his focus was heavily on positional play with strict adherence to ordered build-up routines and established zones. City’s style has, however, evolved over the years into a more dynamic hybrid system. This system allows players to change their positions in real time, depending on the opposition’s press and the state of the game.

In recent seasons, the use of inverted full-backs (most dramatically so with Rico Lewis) has already made it harder to separate defence from midfield. Guardiola has now extended this thinking, with several players capable of drifting into congested central channels and wingers occupying wide positions to overcommit defences.

One of the characterising features of City’s recent seasons, and a key part of their 2023/24 title win, was the increasingly dominant box midfield configuration.

By pinning one full-back into the middle to supplement Rodri, and allowing two further midfielders (normally Bernardo Silva and, previously, Kevin De Bruyne) to play between the lines, City gained numerical superiority in the middle third.

This approach not only improved ball retention but also enabled a safe rest-defence structure, facilitating smooth recovery of possession in case of turnovers.

However, in 2024/25 , this shape was exploited more often, with opponents hitting them on the break and exposing gaps in transition. During Manchester City’s defeats to Tottenham and Brighton, this frailty has again been exposed.

City is known for its aggressive high press and controlling territory far from its own goal. But last season, that same approach often left them exposed to quick counterattacks, with lapses in concentration and individual errors proving costly.

The addition of athletic defenders like Josko Gvardiol and, more recently, Abdukodir Khusanov was meant to strengthen City’s back line. But in 2024/25, they still conceded more goals than expected. While their shape still allows them to dominate territory, improving defensive consistency will be a major focus. Defensive errors have proved costly in Manchester City’s defeats to Tottenham and Brighton this season. Those errors must be rectified by the Manchester City players for Pep Guardiola’s side to have any chance of improvement this season.

The thread below from Jon Mackenzie of The Athletic , explains Manchester City’s early season issues with their play out of possession. The thread below covers Manchester City’s 2-1 loss to Brighton and shows that Pep Guardiola’s new-look side remains a work in progress.

– Tuesday, 2 September 2025

The introduction of Erling Haaland brought a new dimension to City’s attack. His elite-level speed, movement, and finishing gave Guardiola a direct-play option he did not have otherwise. The team has adapted, over the past two seasons, to utilise Haaland’s vertical threat with its usual slow build-up.

Instead of simply juggling balls into the box, City now uses Haaland to overload defenses, drawing space for wide players and midfield runners. The twin-threat formula makes them unpredictable and well-nigh undefendable for a full 90 minutes.

One of the most thrilling aspects of the 2025/26 season will be the incorporation of young talents from City’s academy and recent recruits. Rico Lewis and Oscar Bobb are examples of youngsters who have already demonstrated tactical maturity well above their age, providing Guardiola with greater flexibility when rotating his team without sacrificing coherence. Nico O’Reilly is another academy graduate who is looking to make a mark this season.

With fixture congestion from European and local commitments, being strategically deep is crucial. Further rotation tweaks will be used as a means for City to remain feverish all year.

According to NetBet’s latest Premier League odds, Liverpool start the 2025/26 season as favourites, with City close behind, a sign of the shifting balance at the top.

1. Maintained Domination of Possession

City will remain the league leaders when it comes to ball retention, with possession statistics well over 60%. Their control in the build-up and quick play switches will hopefully be utilised to unlock the low defensive blocks that City contend with.

2. Increased Emphasis on Transitions

While controlling possession will continue to be a Guardiola signature, expect more direct transitional attacks, particularly against premier European clubs . This combination of control and pace on the counter when the opportunity arises, could be the difference in tight games.

3. Defensive Improvement Needed

City’s defensive record last season was below their usual standards. If they can tighten up in transition and cut out unforced errors, they’ll be much harder to beat.

4. European ambitions

The Champions League continues to be a desired goal. City’s tactical sophistication, along with their depth of squad, makes them favourites to reach the semis at worst, and the Premier League crown is firmly on the horizon.

City has acted decisively in the transfer market to address key weaknesses. Left-back Rayan Aït-Nouri adds pace and balance down the flank, while Rayan Cherki brings creativity to help fill the void left by Kevin De Bruyne. Although Cherki is now out of action for two months with a thigh injury.

Midfield energy arrives in the form of Tijjani Reijnders, and highly rated Norwegian talent Sverre Nypan figures to be a key part of Manchester City’s future. In goal, James Trafford returns to provide competition and sharpen standards. Gianluigi Donnarumma signed for Manchester City on deadline day and the Italian international will provide Pep Guardiola’s side with leadership and a world-class shot-stopper after Ederson left the club.

What sets Guardiola apart isn’t just tactical brilliance, but his willingness to adapt. This season, however, is less about innovation and more about resilience. With Liverpool the early favourites, and having won their opening three games, City must respond to last season’s setbacks and reassert themselves at the top. They’ll have to bounce back quickly when domestic football returns after the current international break.

Manchester City’s playing style under Pep Guardiola has been one of constant reinvention and evolution. With a squad that can accommodate multiple game plans, a solidity in defense combined with mobility at the other end, and a manager who thrives on constantly evolving ideas, this season promises to deliver even more innovation and dominance.

If City continues at its current pace, it will not just shape the Premier League’s future: it will do so on its terms. But the new-look Manchester City remains a work in progress but the pieces are there for Pep Guardiola’s side to contend once again on multiple fronts.