📊 Opta Scudetto picks: Inter lead, Napoli falter, Roma above Juve

August is the month of predictions. At the bar, on social media, during breaks in the Fantasy auction. But there are those who don’t talk: they calculate.

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The Opta Predictor is a supercomputer that lines up data and numbers. It leaves no room for gut feelings: the strength, and perhaps also the flaw, of one of the most advanced mathematical models in the world of football.

Based on strengths and weaknesses, historical results, and performance indices, the Opta Predictor simulates the league 10,000 times. From there, it produces the probabilities for the Scudetto, Champions League, Europa League, and even the final standings. A cold, but precise snapshot to which we try to add some reasoning.

Inter leads the projections with a 36.09% chance of winning the Scudetto : almost triple that of Napoli . 76 points estimated at the end of the season, enough to stay ahead of everyone. Champions League? Almost guaranteed: 78.25%.

The algorithm sees a solid team, which has kept its most important players and not only that: it has brought in others. Objectively, today’s Inter has more options than the one that reached the Champions League final, and Opta knows this.

However, subtleties are hard to quantify: does the switch from Inzaghi to Chivu have an exact success rate? No one can know, also because Chivu’s numbers among professionals may not be enough to build a case study.

Defending champions, a strengthened squad, Antonio Conte on the bench. The credentials are those of the team to beat. And yet, according to Opta, that’s not the case. Napoli starts behind. Far behind. Maybe it’s because of the double European commitment, maybe it’s the confidence given to Inter : the supercomputer sees it this way.

13.25% chance of winning the Scudetto , almost a third of Inter’s. Conte said it: “We have to be a nuisance to Inter , Juve, and Milan” . But for the supercomputer, that might not be enough.

New coach, top scorer Retegui sold, and a “Lookman case” shaking things up. Yet, for the supercomputer, Juric’s Atalanta remains up there, almost hand in hand with Napoli .

The simulations give them a 13.18% chance of winning the Scudetto and over 51% chance of returning to the Champions League . A clear signal: for Opta, Bergamo does not surrender to change. La Dea changes its face, but not its ambition.

Behind the top two, the surprise is Roma . A year ago, their chance of winning the Scudetto was 0.8%, today the final victory is at 10.29% . The Gasperini effect, who brings out the best in players and brings the Giallorossi close to the Champions League ( 45.92% ).

For Milan , Massimiliano Allegri’s track record speaks for itself. The algorithm overlooks the offensive imperfections of Max’s recent seasons, and perhaps the coach himself would agree: “When you’re not attacking, you shouldn’t be ashamed to defend well, because the ultimate goal is the result you have to achieve by any means necessary” . But what is that result? Not first place for Opta: 7.46% chance of the Scudetto and 37.70% for the Champions League.

Juventus under Tudor posts numbers similar to Milan, albeit in different ways: no upheavals, great consistency, and a calmer environment without the need for a rebuild. For the Bianconeri, there’s a 7.33% chance of the Scudetto and 38.29% chance of reaching the Champions League.

The others see fourth place as a possible goal. Lazio ( 4.70% Scudetto – 29.68% Champions League), Bologna ( 3.29% – 24.45%) and Fiorentina ( 2.95% – 21.50%) are vying for the outsider role.

And then there are Como and Torino, small surprises with potential for growth. Low percentages, but Opta lists them as potential exploit teams.

Ten thousand simulations produced this table:

How many placements will the Supercomputer get right? The answer will come at the end of May 2026.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

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