Premier League supercomputer gives Liverpool title verdict as clear four-way race emerges

Liverpool are the clear favourites to retain their Premier League title this season, but they have three rivals for the crown, according to new research.

Arne Slot won the 2024/25 title, finishing 10 points clear of Arsenal, in his first campaign as Reds boss and his side have made a perfect start this season. Liverpool sit top of the Premier League table after three matches, having beaten Bournemouth , Newcastle and Arsenal to claim nine points.

They needed late goals to see off the Cherries and Magpies before a stunning Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick downed the Gunners. Liverpool have spent £450million in the summer transfer window to strengthen their squad, with Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike the headline additions in attack.

That expenditure has helped strengthen their position as title favourites, according to the CIES Football Observatory , who give them a 28.9 per cent chance of lifting the trophy again in May. The research takes into account variables including performance data and transfers to calculate the probability and underlines how competitive the Premier League should be this season.

That is because Arsenal are given a 18.8 per cent chance of winning the title, narrowly ahead of Chelsea (16.2 per cent) and Manchester City (14.4 per cent). It could feasibly be a four-horse race this time around, which is a real contrast to Europe’s other top divisions.

For example, Paris Saint-Germain have a 73 per cent chance of winning Ligue 1, while Bayern Munich (61.4 per cent) and Real Madrid (40.6 per cent) are significant favourites in the Bundesliga and La Liga respectively.

Interestingly, Nottingham Forest are rated the fifth-favourites for the Premier League title, on 7.9 per cent, ahead of Newcastle (5.8 per cent), Aston Villa (3.2 per cent) and Manchester United (2.6 per cent).

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Slot isn’t so sure it will be a clear-cut thing for Liverpool. “The reason why it is so difficult [to retain the title] lies mainly in the fact that there are so many competitors that can also win the league over here,” he said before the campaign kicked off in August.

“To win it once is already very special, let alone if you can win it twice in three, four or five years. Or as we did, twice in five years and [Manchester] City did even better than us in the last few years.

“So that’s unbelievable if you’re able to do this in this league. And probably this year is going to be harder than every year before, because every team brings in new players, but our main competitors definitely did as well.”

Asked if the death of Diogo Jota and the heightened emotions around the club since his passing would make it even harder this year, Slot added: “That is a question I hope you are going to ask me at the end of the season, and is impossible to answer now.

“You don’t know the challenges that are in front of you and how difficult it is going to be for us or another team to win the league, so it is impossible to answer now.”

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